word
sp
WILL
LARGELY
BE
sp
SEEN
AFTER
sp
THE
NEW
YEAR'S
DAY
sp
HOLIDAY
sp
SO
sp
ESSENTIALLY
sp
YOU
COULD
STILL
THAT
sp
THE
FIRST
sp
REGIONAL
sp
SURVEY
sp
TO
HAVE
BEEN
LARGELY
COMPILED
OF
sp
THE
RESULTS
sp
DRAWN
ER
sp
ER
FROM
THE
BEGINNING
OF
THIS
sp
YEAR
sp
AND
sp
AND
sp
THE
sp
AND
THE
sp
AND
YOU
KNOW
YOU
SEE
SOME
REFERENCE
IN
THE
PRESS
sp
RELEASE
sp
TO
sp
ESTIMATES
BASED
sp
O
sp
ON
OUR
SURVEY
OF
MANUFACTURING
sp
EMPLOYMENT
ER
ER
sp
FOR
THE
REGIONS
sp
THOSE
FIGURES
ARE
CONSISTENT
WITH
OUR
sp
NATIONAL
sp
FIGURES
ON
sp
ON
sp
THE
sp
TREND
IN
MANUFACTURING
sp
EMPLOYMENT
AND
OUR
sp
SHORT
sp
TERM
sp
FORECAST
WHICH
sp
AS
A
sp
MATTER
sp
OF
sp
FACT
sp
WAS
{OOV}
PUBLISHED
AT
sp
THE
END
OF
sp
LAST
MONTH
sp
SO
sp
{OOV}
sp
RESULTS
sp
THANK
sp
YOU
VERY
MUCH
sp
ERM
sp
I
THINK
THE
MAIN
STORY
AS
sp
WE
SORT
OF
LEAD
OFF
FROM
THE
FROM
sp
THE
sp
NEWS
sp
RELEASE
sp
IS
sp
SAYING
sp
THAT
ESSENTIALLY
ERM
sp
OUR
INTERPRETATION
OF
sp
THE
sp
RESULTS
sp
IS
THAT
sp
THE
R
sp
THE
RECOVERY
sp
HAS
sp
SPREAD
ERM
sp
TO
sp
ALL
sp
REGIONS
OF
THE
ECONOMY
AT
sp
LEAST
IN
sp
TERMS
sp
OF
sp
ORDERS
sp
ERM
sp
AND
IN
TERMS
OF
sp
THE
MAINLAND
sp
ERM
sp
ECONOMY
sp
INCLUDING
sp
NORTHERN
IRELAND
sp
BUT
I'LL
GO
sp
INTO
MORE
sp
DETAILS
sp
ON
sp
THAT
IN
A
sp
MOMENT
ERM
I'LL
JUST
SORT
sp
OF
ER
TALK
sp
BRIEFLY
ABOUT
sp
SORT
OF
sp
MAIN
sp
TRENDS
AND
sp
AND
sp
SORT
sp
OF
sp
OUTPUT
AND
ORDERS
AND
sp
SO
sp
ON
sp
AND
THEN
GO
THROUGH
IN
sp
TERMS
sp
OF
SOME
sp
OF
sp
THE
IMPLICATIONS
sp
THAT
sp
{OOV}
sp
RESULTS
AS
sp
REGARDS
sp
TO
sp
EMPLOYMENT
sp
AND
{OOV}
sp
DOMESTIC
sp
CRISIS
sp
ERM
LOOKING
sp
AT
sp
THE
EMPLOY
sp
SORRY
LOOKING
AT
THE
OUTPUT
SIDE
sp
ER
THE
QUESTION
LOOKING
AT
sp
TRENDS
AND
OUTPUT
OVER
THE
LAST
sp
FOUR
MONTHS
sp
SHOWS
sp
THAT
IN
ALL
THE
sp
FOUR
REGIONS
sp
MANUFACTURERS
sp
SAY
sp
THAT
OUTPUT
sp
HAS
sp
INCREASED
OVER
sp
THE
sp
PRECEDING
sp
FOUR
sp
MONTHS
ERM
sp
THE
sp
FASTEST
sp
RISE
IS
sp
RECORDED
IN
sp
YORKSHIRE
AND
sp
HUMBERSIDE
sp
IN
WALES
sp
AND
IN
SCOTLAND
sp
ERM
sp
IN
YORKSHIRE
AND
HUMBERSIDE
sp
A
LITTLE
BIT
UNEXPECTED
sp
THE
OCTOBER
sp
SURVEY
SHOWED
THAT
ORDERS
sp
WERE
sp
FLAT
sp
AND
EXPECTATIONS
sp
ABOUT
OUTPUT
sp
WERE
ALSO
sp
FAIRLY
sp
FLAT
sp
SO
IT'S
COME
sp
THROUGH
ERM
sp
RATHER
BETTER
sp
THAN
sp
PEOPLE
sp
THOUGHT
IT
sp
WOULD
IN
sp
THE
sp
YORKSHIRE
AND
sp
HUMBERSIDE
sp
REGION
sp
ERM
sp
IN
WALES
AND
SCOTLAND
ALSO
sp
SLIGHTLY
BETTER
THAN
sp
PEOPLE
EXPECTED
sp
ERM
A
sp
RISE
sp
WAS
sp
WAS
EXPECTED
sp
BUT
NOT
AS
STRONG
sp
AS
sp
WE
sp
AS
sp
WE'VE
ACTUALLY
SEEN
sp
ERM
THE
sp
WELSH
AND
SCOTTISH
sp
ER
sp
ECONOMIES
CERTAINLY
sp
THERE'S
sp
CLE
CLEAR
sp
EVIDENCE
sp
IN
SCOTLAND
sp
BUT
I
THINK
ONE
sp
CAN
sp
READ
IT
sp
FOR
sp
WALES
AS
sp
WELL
sp
SHOWING
sp
THAT
sp
THE
sp
MANUFACTURING
sp
ECONOMY
sp
ER
sp
VERY
MUCH
sp
BEING
sp
BUOYED
UP
BY
THE
ELECTRONIC
sp
SECTOR
ERM
AND
sp
THAT
sp
PROBABLY
sp
ER
sp
HELPING
sp
TO
sp
EXPLAIN
sp
WHY
sp
GROWTH
sp
HAS
BEEN
SO
STRONG
sp
IN
sp
THOSE
sp
PARTS
OF
THE
sp
COUNTRY
ERM
sp
OTHER
REGIONS
ALSO
sp
SHOWING
INCREASES
sp
ERM
sp
EAST
MIDLANDS
SOUTH
sp
EAST
sp
WEST
MIDLANDS
sp
ERM
sp
ALL
OF
THOSE
SHOW
sp
INCREASES
ON
THE
BACK
sp
OF
sp
{OOV}
IN
sp
PREVIOUS
sp
{OOV}
BORDERS
sp
THE
SAME
sp
TRUE
sp
THOUGH
TO
A
sp
SLIGHTLY
sp
LESS
sp
EXTENT
sp
I
THINK
sp
THE
NORTH
sp
WEST
sp
SO
ALTHOUGH
sp
THE
INCREASE
sp
IS
IS
sp
NOT
AS
STRONG
AS
IN
sp
YORKSHIRE
sp
WALES
AND
sp
SCOTLAND
sp
NEVERTHELESS
sp
CONTINUING
sp
TO
{OOV}
TRENDS
sp
ERM
sp
THE
sp
PARTS
OF
THE
COUNTRY
WHERE
THINGS
HAVE
sp
BEEN
A
sp
BIT
sp
FLAT
sp
SEEM
TO
BE
sp
THE
NORTH
sp
AND
THE
SOUTH
sp
WEST
sp
AND
sp
BOTH
sp
OF
THOSE
ARE
REGIONS
IN
WHICH
EXPORT
sp
ORDERS
sp
RECEIVED
sp
FELL
IN
THE
sp
PREVIOUS
sp
TWO
SURVEYS
sp
SO
THAT
sp
SEEMS
TO
BE
sp
CONSISTENT
sp
ALTHOUGH
IN
THE
sp
NORTH
sp
THEY
SEEM
TO
HAVE
sp
PICKED
UP
sp
SOMEWHAT
sp
IN
THIS
SURVEY
ERM
sp
AND
sp
OPTIMISM
IS
ALSO
ERM
sp
ER
sp
STRONGER
sp
IN
THIS
SURVEY
THAN
IT
sp
WAS
IN
THE
sp
PREVIOUS
sp
ONE
ERM
sp
IN
EAST
ANGLIA
sp
ERM
sp
SORRY
THAT'S
sp
THAT'S
TRUE
FOR
THE
NORTH
sp
AND
THE
sp
SOUTH
WEST
sp
IN
EAST
ANGLIA
sp
ER
OUTPUT
ALSO
sp
HAS
sp
BEEN
sp
FLAT
ERM
sp
BUT
sp
THAT
SEEMS
TO
BE
RELATED
sp
TO
WEAKNESS
sp
IN
EXPORT
sp
DEMAND
IN
sp
THE
REGION
sp
ERM
EXPORT
sp
{OOV}
WAS
sp
THE
WEAKEST
ER
IN
sp
THAT
REGION
OF
ANY
REGION
THROUGHOUT
sp
THE
sp
U
sp
K
sp
ALTHOUGH
sp
TOTAL
OPTIMISM
IS
STRONG
sp
SO
IT
sp
SEEMS
sp
TO
BE
sp
THE
CASE
sp
ERM
sp
THOUGH
sp
BUSINESS
IS
sp
BEING
DONE
{OOV}
THE
EXPORT
sp
ECONOMY
sp
ERM
sp
IN
sp
EAST
ANGLIA
sp
FINALLY
NORTHERN
IRELAND
SHOWS
THAT
sp
THERE
HAS
sp
BEEN
DECLINE
sp
IN
OUTPUT
sp
OVER
sp
THE
PRECEDING
sp
FOUR
sp
MONTHS
AND
sp
THE
ONLY
sp
REGION
T
sp
T
TO
SAY
THAT
ERM
IT'S
FAIR
TO
sp
SAY
THAT
NORTH
sp
NORTHERN
IRELAND
sp
HAS
BEEN
sp
A
WEAK
REGION
sp
THROUGHOUT
ER
sp
THE
RECESSION
sp
ERM
sp
AND
ALTHOUGH
IN
THIS
SURVEY
OPTIMISM
sp
HAS
sp
CLIMBED
UP
A
BIT
sp
SO
IT'S
sp
CLOSE
sp
TO
sp
THE
U
sp
K
AVERAGE
sp
IT'S
sp
NEVERTHELESS
A
PART
OF
sp
THE
U
sp
K
sp
WHICH
HAS
sp
REALLY
sp
BEEN
BEHAVING
sp
ER
sp
RATHER
sp
DIFFERENTLY
sp
FROM
THE
REST
OF
THE
ECONOMY
sp
REFLECTING
ITS
sp
SORT
sp
OF
sp
I
sp
ITS
PARTICULAR
PROBLEMS
AND
THE
FACT
THAT
IT'S
sp
NOT
sp
PART
OF
THE
sp
MAINLAND
sp
ECONOMY
sp
SO
sp
THAT'S
sp
WHAT'S
BEEN
GOING
ON
IN
sp
TERMS
OF
OUTPUT
IN
sp
TERMS
sp
OF
sp
ORDERS
sp
ALREADY
sp
RECEIVED
sp
ORDERS
sp
ARE
UP
IN
ALL
MAINLAND
REGIONS
OF
sp
THE
U
sp
K
sp
IT'S
THE
sp
FIRST
TIME
THAT
sp
WE'VE
sp
SEEN
sp
THAT
sp
SINCE
ER
THE
BEGINNING
OF
sp
THE
sp
RECESSION
sp
AND
THAT'S
THE
sp
SENSE
sp
IN
WHICH
sp
WE
sp
THINK
sp
ONE
CAN
sp
SAY
sp
ERM
sp
REASONABLY
SORT
sp
OF
sp
ER
STRAIGHTFORWARDLY
sp
THAT
sp
THE
RECOVERY
sp
HAS
sp
INDEED
sp
SPREAD
sp
AROUND
THE
sp
MAINLAND
sp
ECONOMY
sp
AGAIN
YORKSHIRE
AND
HUMBERSIDE
sp
ER
sp
SCOTLAND
AND
WALES
sp
TENDING
TO
sp
LEAD
THAT
ERM
ALL
sp
OF
sp
THEM
{OOV}
AS
sp
I
SAID
sp
HAVE
sp
GOT
STRONG
sp
OUTPUT
sp
TRENDS
sp
ERM
IN
sp
TERMS
OF
YORKSHIRE
sp
AND
sp
HUMBERSIDE
THE
ORDERS
ER
sp
SEEM
TO
sp
BE
VERY
MUCH
DOMESTIC
sp
RATHER
sp
THAN
sp
EXPORT
sp
BUT
WIDELY
SPREAD
sp
BETWEEN
sp
SECTORS
sp
WHICH
sp
GIVES
{OOV}
REASSURANCE
sp
TO
sp
THEM
sp
SOUTH
EAST
ALSO
DOING
WELL
AND
sp
IN
THE
SOUTH
EAST
sp
LOOKING
AT
sp
THE
{OOV}
sp
IT
SEEMS
TO
sp
BE
sp
THE
sp
CASE
sp
ONE
CAN'T
sp
PUT
sp
TOO
STRONG
AN
EL
sp
TOO
sp
STRONG
sp
ERM
A
sp
SORT
OF
sp
WEIGHT
ON
sp
IT
sp
BUT
IT
sp
SEEMS
TO
sp
BE
sp
THE
CASE
sp
THAT
IN
sp
THE
SOUTH
EAST
sp
IT'S
sp
THE
FOOD
DRINK
sp
AND
sp
TOBACCO
SECTOR
sp
AND
sp
CHEMICALS
sp
WHICH
ARE
sp
TENDING
sp
TO
TO
sp
LEAD
sp
THE
sp
WAY
sp
THERE
ERM
sp
SCOTLAND
ALSO
sp
STRONG
sp
EXPORT
sp
DEMAND
sp
ORDERS
GROWTH
HAS
BEEN
LESS
STRONG
IN
sp
OTHER
REGIONS
sp
{OOV}
THE
NORTH
sp
WHICH
IS
sp
CONSISTENT
sp
WITH
sp
THE
OUTPUT
sp
STORY
AND
sp
THE
SOUTH
sp
WEST
sp
AGAIN
sp
CONSISTENT
sp
SOUTH
WEST
HAS
SEEN
sp
FALLS
IN
EXPORT
sp
ORDERS
FOR
sp
S
THREE
SURVEYS
IN
sp
A
ROW
sp
NOW
ERM
sp
THE
sp
NORTH
sp
WEST
sp
AGAIN
EXPORT
ORDERS
sp
FLAT
sp
AND
AGAIN
sp
DOWN
IN
sp
NORTHERN
sp
IRELAND
sp
GOING
FROM
THERE
sp
TO
AND
sp
THAT'S
A
sp
SORT
sp
OF
HISTORY
sp
OF
WHERE
THINGS
sp
HAVE
HAPPENED
OVER
THE
sp
PREVIOUS
FOUR
MON
sp
FOUR
MONTHS
sp
TO
EXPECTATIONS
ABOUT
OUTPUT
sp
THIS
IS
THE
FIRST
SURVEY
sp
SINCE
sp
THE
RECESSION
sp
BEGAN
sp
IN
WHICH
ALL
REGIONS
sp
MAINLAND
sp
REGIONS
sp
OF
sp
THE
U
sp
K
sp
SAY
THAT
THEY
EXPECT
sp
OUTPUT
TO
sp
INCREASE
sp
OVER
THE
sp
COMING
sp
FOUR
sp
MONTHS
sp
ADMITTEDLY
IN
sp
ONE
OR
TWO
sp
CASES
sp
THE
INFERENCE
sp
IS
sp
FAIRLY
MARGINAL
sp
BUT
NEVERTHELESS
IT'S
sp
THE
FIRST
TIME
sp
ALL
THE
NUMBERS
HAVE
sp
BEEN
sp
POSITIVE
sp
THE
REGIONS
WHICH
ARE
LEADING
sp
ARE
IN
SOME
CASES
sp
DIFFERENT
sp
FROM
THOSE
WHICH
sp
HAVE
sp
BEEN
LEADING
sp
IN
sp
TERMS
OF
THE
HISTORIC
sp
TRENDS
sp
OVER
THE
LAST
sp
FOUR
sp
MONTHS
ERM
sp
EAST
MIDLANDS
ERM
sp
EXPECT
sp
TO
DO
sp
WELL
AND
THAT
sp
CONTINUES
A
REASONABLY
sp
FIRM
sp
TREND
sp
EAST
ANGLIA
ALSO
EXPECTS
TO
DO
WELL
sp
AND
THAT
sp
SEEMS
TO
ER
sp
STOCK
sp
NUMBERS
sp
INDICATE
AN
END
TO
sp
DE
STOCKING
sp
IN
sp
EAST
sp
ANGLIA
AND
sp
THAT
sp
BEING
sp
THE
EXPLANATION
sp
SOUTH
EAST
VERY
MUCH
sp
CONSISTENT
sp
WITH
sp
PAST
ORDERS
sp
AND
WITH
EXPECTATIONS
OF
sp
ORDERS
sp
BOTH
sp
TOTAL
sp
AND
EXPORT
sp
SO
IN
THIS
CASE
sp
IT'S
SORT
OF
sp
THE
EXPORT
sp
TOTAL
sp
STORY
AS
sp
WELL
AS
sp
THE
sp
DOMESTIC
sp
DEMAND
sp
STORY
sp
HELPING
THE
REGION
sp
AND
THE
WEST
MIDLANDS
FOR
sp
FOUR
OR
FIVE
SURVEYS
WE'VE
sp
SEEN
STRONG
TOTAL
sp
ORDERS
sp
BROADLY
BASED
sp
BETWEEN
sp
SE
sp
SECTORS
sp
STRONG
OUTPUT
sp
TRENDS
sp
SO
sp
THE
WEST
sp
MIDLANDS
sp
BEING
OUR
sp
LEADING
sp
ER
sp
REGION
IS
CONSISTENT
WITH
WHAT
sp
WE'VE
sp
SEEN
sp
FROM
sp
OTHER
sp
SURVEYS
sp
ERM
sp
AND
THEN
THE
WEAKER
REGIONS
COMING
sp
THROUGH
sp
THE
NORTH
sp
WEST
sp
THE
SOUTH
WEST
sp
WALES
AND
NORTHERN
IRELAND
sp
I
sp
THINK
IT'S
FAIR
TO
sp
SAY
PARTICULARLY
IN
THE
CASE
OF
sp
WALES
sp
WHICH
IS
sp
PERHAPS
ONE
OF
THE
MORE
SURPRISING
sp
ERM
sp
ELEMENTS
sp
THERE
sp
WALES
AS
YOU
KNOW
sp
HAS
sp
TENDED
TO
sp
BE
QUITE
sp
A
STRONG
sp
REGION
sp
DURING
THE
sp
RECOVERY
PERIOD
sp
ERM
sp
IT
MAY
BE
BECAUSE
ER
sp
CERTAIN
sp
I
sp
THINK
sp
A
LOT
OF
sp
ALTHOUGH
AS
I
sp
SAY
WALES
sp
IS
A
sp
WEAKER
REGION
IN
sp
TERMS
OF
THE
sp
{OOV}
EXPECTED
EXPECTED
OVER
THE
NEXT
sp
FOUR
sp
MONTHS
IT'S
sp
NEVERTHELESS
sp
FROM
A
REASONABLY
HIGH
LEVEL
sp
BECAUSE
IT'S
sp
DONE
WELL
sp
SO
sp
FAR
ERM
sp
AND
I
sp
WOULDN'T
WANT
sp
TO
OVER
STRESS
sp
THE
SENSE
IN
sp
WHICH
sp
WALES
sp
IS
sp
PERHAPS
sp
NOT
sp
DOING
AS
sp
WELL
AS
sp
THE
sp
OTHERS
ERM
IT
sp
WOULD
BE
WRONG
sp
TO
SAY
sp
WALES
IS
sp
A
sp
WEAK
sp
REGION
sp
ON
THE
BASIS
sp
OF
THIS
sp
IT'S
JUST
sp
NOT
DOESN'T
sp
APPEAR
sp
OR
DOESN'T
sp
EXPECT
TO
sp
GROW
sp
AS
sp
STRONGLY
sp
AS
sp
IT
sp
WAS
sp
GROWING
sp
THAT'S
sp
THE
sp
SORT
OF
THE
GENERAL
TREND
sp
ERM
AND
sp
FROM
sp
THERE
sp
WE
CAN
GO
ON
sp
TO
sp
OTHER
sp
THINGS
sp
AS
sp
FAR
AS
EMPLOYMENT
sp
IS
CONCERNED
sp
ERM
sp
WE
ASK
ER
sp
COMPANIES
QUESTIONS
ABOUT
sp
THE
TREND
sp
IN
sp
EMPLOYMENT
OVER
THE
sp
PAST
FOUR
MONTHS
AND
sp
THE
EXPECTED
TREND
sp
AND
WE
THEN
CALCULATE
FROM
THAT
AND
THE
sp
NUMBERS
sp
ARE
AT
THE
BACK
OF
THE
BOOK
sp
PAGES
sp
SEVEN
sp
PAGE
SEVENTY
sp
ONE
BASICALLY
AND
ON
THE
GRAPHS
WHICH
sp
FOLLOW
sp
WE
CALCULATE
THAT
ON
sp
AN
ESTIMATE
OF
sp
WHAT
WE
sp
THINK
sp
HAS
HAPPENED
sp
TO
sp
EMPLOYMENT
IN
sp
THE
sp
QUARTER
ERM
AND
sp
THAT
sp
CALCULATION
sp
TELLS
US
sp
AND
IT
SEEMS
TO
BE
RE
sp
REASONABLY
RIGHT
IN
THE
sp
SENSE
sp
THAT
IT'S
GOT
A
sp
A
GOOD
TR
A
sp
GOOD
sp
RECORD
OF
sp
TRACKING
ERM
sp
THE
sp
OFFICIAL
NUMBERS
sp
WHEN
THEY
EVENTUALLY
sp
COME
sp
OUT
sp
SINCE
sp
THE
sp
THAT
sp
METHODOLOGY
TELLS
US
sp
THAT
ALTHOUGH
EMPLOYMENT
HAS
sp
BEEN
sp
CUT
ERM
IN
THE
sp
FIRST
sp
QUARTER
OF
sp
THIS
sp
YEAR
sp
ON
OUR
{OOV}
sp
ER
sp
CALCULATIONS
sp
IN
MANY
REGIONS
OF
THE
ECONOMY
sp
WITH
THE
sp
SOUTH
EAST
PARTICULARLY
HARD
sp
HIT
sp
WELL
IN
ONE
REGION
THE
WEST
MIDLANDS
sp
FOR
THE
FIRST
TIME
WE'RE
SEEING
sp
AN
INCREASE
sp
IN
sp
EMPLOYMENT
sp
NOW
ADMITTEDLY
IT'S
sp
AN
INCREASE
OF
sp
TWO
THOUSAND
OUT
sp
OF
ABOUT
HALF
A
MILLION
sp
SO
ONE
ISN'T
sp
SORT
sp
OF
sp
ER
ER
sp
GETTING
OVER
EXCITED
ABOUT
IT
sp
BUT
NEVERTHELESS
sp
IT'S
THE
FIRST
UPWARD
sp
NUMBER
sp
WHICH
sp
WE'VE
sp
HAD
sp
SO
EMPLOYMENT
TENDING
TO
ER
sp
LEVEL
OFF
sp
THERE
AT
ER
AT
sp
THE
sp
ER
sp
{OOV}
LEVEL
sp
INVESTMENT
sp
HAS
sp
TURNED
sp
POSITIVE
OVERALL
AT
sp
THE
U
sp
K
LEVEL
sp
AND
THE
REGIONS
WHICH
ARE
sp
LEADING
sp
INVESTMENT
sp
EXPECTATIONS
sp
AND
THIS
IS
sp
PEOPLE'S
EXPECTATIONS
ABOUT
WHAT
sp
THEY'RE
GOING
sp
TO
sp
DO
sp
IN
sp
TERMS
sp
OF
INVESTMENT
IN
sp
PLANT
sp
AND
MACHINERY
OVER
sp
THE
sp
YEAR
AHEAD
WHICH
I
sp
THINK
sp
IS
PROBABLY
sp
THE
sp
MEANINGFUL
ONE
sp
TO
sp
FOCUS
sp
ON
RATHER
THAN
sp
BUILDINGS
sp
NUMBERS
ERM
sp
THE
TWO
REGIONS
WHICH
ARE
LEADING
THAT
ARE
THE
SOUTH
sp
WEST
sp
ERM
sp
AND
THAT
MAKES
SENSE
BECAUSE
sp
THE
SOUTH
WEST
IS
sp
HAS
sp
THE
LOWEST
NUMBER
sp
OF
FIRMS
sp
WHO
SAY
THAT
THEY'RE
sp
WORKING
sp
BELOW
CAPACITY
sp
AND
ALSO
THE
WEST
MIDLANDS
sp
FOR
THE
LAST
sp
FIVE
sp
SURVEYS
sp
THE
WEST
MIDLANDS
sp
HAS
EITHER
BEEN
THE
MOST
OPTIMISTIC
sp
REGION
IN
sp
TERMS
OF
sp
THE
GENERAL
BUSINESS
sp
CONDITIONS
sp
OR
sp
THE
SECOND
MOST
OPTIMISTIC
sp
SO
IT'S
sp
NOT
sp
ENTIRELY
sp
SURPRISING
THAT
THEY
NOW
sp
SAY
THAT
THEY
EXPECT
sp
TO
INVEST
sp
ON
THE
BACK
OF
THE
sp
STRENGTH
sp
OF
sp
THAT
OPTIMISM
sp
DOMESTIC
sp
PRICES
sp
ONLY
THREE
REGIONS
EXPECT
sp
PRICES
sp
TO
INCREASE
sp
BY
sp
A
sp
MEANINGFUL
AMOUNT
sp
ERM
sp
THEY
ARE
YORKSHIRE
AND
HUMBERSIDE
WHICH
I
sp
THINK
IS
sp
PROBABLY
RELATED
TO
sp
THE
sp
STRENGTH
sp
OF
ORDERS
sp
AND
DEMAND
IN
sp
THAT
sp
REGION
sp
EAST
MIDLANDS
sp
WHERE
THEY
sp
WHERE
IT'S
SORT
OF
sp
CONSISTENT
sp
WITH
A
sp
TREND
ERM
IN
sp
THE
sp
LAST
sp
FEW
SURVEYS
sp
WHERE
THEY
sp
SAY
sp
THAT
THEY
HAVE
ACHIEVED
sp
MODEST
sp
PRICE
sp
RISES
sp
ERM
AND
sp
WHERE
sp
COSTS
sp
HAVE
sp
NOT
sp
BEEN
sp
FALLING
sp
ERM
sp
AND
ALSO
WALES
sp
BUT
NEVERTHELESS
IT'S
IM
sp
IMPORTANT
TO
REMEMBER
THAT
sp
THIS
IS
A
SURVEY
ERM
WHICH
IS
sp
CONDUCTED
sp
AT
sp
THE
TIME
sp
OF
sp
YEAR
WHEN
sp
MOST
COMPAN
OR
sp
MANY
sp
COMPANIES
sp
RAISE
THEIR
sp
LIST
sp
PRICES
sp
AND
IF
ONE
LOOKS
AT
THE
PAST
sp
SORT
OF
RECORD
OF
sp
THIS
sp
SURVEY
sp
BOTH
AT
THE
sp
REGIONAL
LEVEL
AND
sp
THE
NATIONAL
LEVEL
sp
ONE
GENERALLY
DOES
sp
SEE
A
BIT
OF
AN
UPTURN
sp
IN
sp
THE
PR
IN
THE
sp
PRICES
sp
NUMBERS
AT
THIS
sp
TIME
OF
sp
YEAR
sp
BECAUSE
sp
PEOPLE
sp
ARE
RAISING
sp
THEIR
LIST
sp
PRICES
ERM
sp
AND
sp
ONCE
YOU
ALLOW
FOR
THAT
sp
ERM
I
sp
THINK
THESE
NUMBERS
sp
ARE
sp
ER
sp
VERY
GOOD
IN
TERMS
sp
OF
sp
PRICES
sp
TRENDS
VERY
sp
LOW
FOR
sp
THE
sp
TIME
OF
sp
YEAR
sp
THE
OTHER
THING
ON
THAT
sp
SORT
sp
OF
ERM
sp
SIDE
IS
sp
THAT
sp
THIS
IS
sp
THE
sp
FIRST
SURVEY
WHICH
WE'VE
sp
HAD
sp
SINCE
sp
WE
STARTED
sp
DOING
THE
SURVEY
sp
IN
NINETEEN
EIGHTY
EIGHT
sp
WHEN
sp
THE
FIRST
NUMBERS
sp
WERE
sp
COMPILED
sp
IT'S
THE
sp
FIRST
SURVEY
WHICH
sp
WE'VE
sp
HAD
sp
WHERE
sp
THE
MAJORITY
OF
sp
REGIONS
MANUFACTURERS
sp
SAY
sp
THAT
sp
THEIR
sp
UNIT
sp
COSTS
sp
HAVE
sp
ALREADY
sp
FALLEN
ERM
WE
sp
HAVEN'T
sp
SEEN
THAT
sp
BEFORE
SO
sp
THE
sp
MAJORITY
sp
OF
REGIONS
sp
SAID
THAT
THE
sp
COSTS
sp
HAD
sp
FALLEN
ERM
sp
ALL
THAT
sp
SORT
OF
sp
LEADS
sp
ME
BACK
TO
sp
WHERE
I
STARTED
sp
FROM
sp
OUR
sp
PERCEPTION
OF
sp
THIS
sp
SURVEY
sp
IS
sp
THAT
IT'S
sp
ENCOURAGING
sp
IN
THE
SENSE
sp
THAT
IT
SUGGESTS
sp
THAT
THE
sp
RECOVERY
sp
IN
sp
THE
sp
ECONOMY
sp
IS
ERM
sp
WIDENING
AND
DEEPENING
IF
YOU
LIKE
IT'S
sp
WIDENING
IN
THE
sp
SENSE
sp
THAT
IT'S
SPREADING
sp
TO
ALL
sp
THE
MAINLAND
sp
REGIONS
OF
sp
THE
U
sp
K
sp
AND
IT'S
sp
DEEPENING
sp
IN
sp
THE
sp
SENSE
sp
THAT
ERM
FIRSTLY
ALTHOUGH
THERE
ARE
REGIONAL
VARIATIONS
sp
WITHIN
THIS
sp
IT'S
CLEARLY
NOT
sp
PURELY
AN
EXPORT
sp
STORY
sp
AND
IT'S
NOT
sp
PURELY
A
DOMESTIC
sp
STORY
sp
IT'S
A
MIXTURE
sp
OF
sp
THE
TWO
sp
WHICH
sp
GIVES
US
sp
SOME
sp
REASSURANCE
sp
ERM
sp
IT'S
ALSO
sp
DEEPENING
IN
THE
sp
SENSE
sp
THAT
THERE'S
sp
NO
sp
EVIDENCE
FROM
sp
THE
SURVEY
OF
ANYTHING
sp
WHICH
IS
sp
LIKELY
TO
sp
TRIP
UP
sp
THE
RECOVERY
sp
IN
THE
SHORT
sp
TERM
AND
sp
REMEMBER
THAT
sp
MOST
sp
OF
THESE
sp
ER
sp
QUESTIONS
sp
RELATE
TO
THE
sp
NEXT
sp
FOUR
MONTHS
NOT
ALL
OF
THEM
sp
BUT
MO
sp
MOST
OF
THEM
sp
RELATE
TO
sp
THE
NEXT
sp
FOUR
sp
MONTHS
sp
SO
ONE
DOESN'T
WANT
TO
sp
EXTRAPOLATE
sp
TOO
FAR
sp
FORWARD
sp
BUT
NEVERTHELESS
IF
YOU
LOOK
AT
ERM
ER
MOST
OBVIOUSLY
sp
SORT
OF
sp
THE
sp
THE
{OOV}
sp
CRISIS
AND
sp
THE
INFLATION
sp
QUESTIONS
sp
IF
sp
YOU
LOOK
sp
AT
sp
ER
sp
POLITICAL
AND
ECONOMIC
CONDITIONS
ABROAD
sp
WHICH
HAS
sp
DECLINED
sp
THE
sp
CONSTRAINT
sp
ON
sp
EXPORTS
sp
IN
sp
SIX
sp
OUT
OF
sp
OUT
sp
OF
ER
sp
THE
sp
ELEVEN
sp
REGIONS
sp
YOU
SEE
NO
EVIDENCE
OF
ANY
sp
IMPENDING
sp
CONSTRAINTS
sp
LIKELY
TO
sp
TRIP
UP
sp
THE
RECOVERY
sp
I'M
NOT
SAYING
IT'S
NOT
GON
sp
NA
HAPPEN
sp
BUT
THERE
IS
sp
NO
EVIDENCE
sp
TO
sp
SUGGEST
sp
THAT
IT
sp
WILL
sp
FROM
sp
THE
sp
SURVEY
THANK
YOU
RICHARD
sp
QUESTIONS
LADIES
AND
sp
GENTLEMEN
sp
ER
sp
JUST
sp
ONE
QUESTION
sp
I
DON'T
sp
REALLY
UNDERSTAND
THE
ERM
EMPLOYMENT
sp
LEVELS
sp
ERM
ON
sp
PAGE
SEVENTY
sp
ONE
IT
sp
SAYS
sp
LONDON
AND
THE
sp
SOUTH
sp
EAST
sp
SHOWS
MANUFACTURING
sp
EMPLOYMENT
sp
STILL
sp
FALLING
sp
IS
IT
sp
THE
sp
SIN
sp
THAT
sp
WAR
sp
THEN
sp
THIS
sp
WOULD
SERIOUSLY
sp
AFFECT
THE
ALLIANCE
sp
THE
THE
NATO
ALLIANCE
IN
OTHER
sp
WORDS
sp
WE
WERE
WE
WERE
CONSIDERABLY
sp
CONCERNED
sp
ABOUT
sp
THE
sp
EXTENT
sp
OF
sp
THE
WAR
NOW
YOU
sp
CAN
sp
SEE
sp
WHAT
WOULD
HAVE
sp
HAPPENED
IF
sp
MCARTHUR
'S
sp
ADVICE
sp
HAD
HAD
BEEN
FOLLOWED
THE
ORIGINAL
OBJECTIVE
sp
WAS
TO
sp
LIBERATE
sp
SOUTH
sp
KOREA
sp
IT
THEN
sp
BEGAN
TO
sp
UNITE
KOREA
BUT
IF
YOU
RAISE
sp
THE
sp
OBJECTIVE
TO
AN
sp
ASSAULT
sp
ON
sp
CHINA
sp
PROPER
THEN
THEN
YOU
WOULD
HAVE
TO
sp
QUOTE
sp
GENERAL
RIDGEWAY
sp
WHO
sp
WAS
A
sp
COMMANDER
sp
ON
sp
THE
sp
SPOT
sp
ER
sp
YOU'D
BE
FIGHTING
THE
sp
WRONG
sp
WAR
THE
sp
WRONG
TIME
AND
sp
IN
sp
THE
WRONG
PLACE
WHAT
WOULD
BE
THE
PURPOSE
OF
sp
THAT
sp
ESCALATION
AND
THE
ANSWER
WAS
NOTHING
sp
UNLESS
sp
YOU
sp
ACTUALLY
sp
WISH
sp
TO
sp
ATTACK
sp
CHINA
AND
sp
ER
sp
DEFEAT
sp
CHINA
sp
THROUGH
MILITARY
sp
MEANS
AND
sp
THE
sp
TASK
OF
sp
DOING
sp
THAT
sp
OF
sp
COURSE
sp
WAS
sp
ENORMOUSLY
OUT
sp
OF
sp
PROPORTION
sp
TO
sp
THE
sp
ORIGINAL
ER
sp
CAUSE
sp
OF
sp
THE
WAR
ER
sp
THE
CUBAN
MISSILES
sp
CRISIS
sp
NOW
sp
HERE
sp
YOU
HAD
A
sp
VERY
DIFFERENT
SITUATION
BECAUSE
THE
NUCLEAR
DIMENSION
sp
WAS
sp
NOW
sp
STARTING
sp
TO
sp
BECOME
VERY
sp
IMPORTANT
sp
THE
ERM
ONSET
sp
OF
sp
THAT
sp
CRISIS
WAS
sp
THE
ATTEMPT
MADE
BY
THE
SOVIET
sp
UNION
TO
sp
EMPLACE
ERM
sp
MEDIUM
RANGE
MISSILE
BASES
ON
sp
CUBA
AND
sp
PRESIDENT
sp
TRUMAN
SORRY
{LG}
ER
PRESIDENT
ERM
KENNEDY
ER
A
DEMOCRAT
sp
IT'S
sp
DEMOCRATS
THAT
ALWAYS
SEEM
TO
GET
INVOLVED
IN
THESE
KINDS
OF
WARS
AS
AS
sp
WAS
THE
CASE
IN
sp
THE
sp
VIETNAM
sp
WAR
ERM
ER
sp
PRESIDENT
sp
KENNEDY
IN
FACT
sp
TOOK
THIS
TO
sp
BE
ER
A
sp
RADICAL
CHANGE
sp
IN
sp
THE
sp
STRATEGIC
sp
BALANCE
sp
AND
sp
TH
sp
THIS
sp
IS
THE
WAY
THE
CRISIS
WAS
sp
REPRESENTED
BUT
sp
IN
sp
FACT
sp
THE
PROBLEM
sp
WAS
sp
THE
sp
POSITION
OF
CASTRO
sp
AND
sp
OF
THE
COMMUNIST
sp
REGIME
IN
sp
CUBA
sp
THE
ER
sp
SOVIETS
CLAIMED
sp
THAT
sp
THAT
sp
THESE
MISSILES
WERE
NOT
OFFENSIVE
AND
INDEED
THE
WEREN'T
OFFENSIVE
THE
sp
UNITED
STATES
HAD
THE
SAME
sp
SORT
OF
MISSILES
IN
ITALY
AND
IN
sp
TURKEY
AND
BEFORE
THIS
sp
CRISIS
HAD
sp
DEVELOPED
PRESIDENT
KENNEDY
sp
HAD
sp
IN
FACT
ORDERED
sp
THEM
ER
TO
sp
BE
ER
ER
RETURNED
TO
THE
sp
UNITED
sp
STATES
sp
THESE
MISSILES
HAD
NO
STRATEGIC
sp
PURPOSE
sp
AT
ALL
sp
BECAUSE
A
sp
MAJOR
CHANGE
THAT
sp
HAD
sp
COME
INTO
sp
THE
STRATEGIC
EQUATION
sp
WAS
sp
THE
sp
ARRIVAL
sp
OF
sp
THE
INTERCONTINENTAL
sp
BALLISTIC
MISSILE
AND
IT
sp
WAS
sp
THESE
MISSILES
REALLY
WHICH
sp
HELD
THE
sp
STRATEGIC
sp
BALANCE
sp
ER
AND
WERE
TO
CHANGE
IN
FACT
RADICALLY
BOTH
sp
INTERNATIONAL
sp
POLITICS
AND
sp
GLOBAL
sp
STRATEGY
OVER
THE
YEARS
sp
TO
sp
COME
sp
BUT
I'M
GOING
TO
TALK
ABOUT
sp
THAT
LATER
THE
sp
POINT
I'M
MAKING
sp
HERE
IS
THAT
ER
KHRUSHCHEV
sp
CLAIMED
THAT
THE
MISSILES
WERE
sp
THERE
sp
IN
THE
EVENT
OF
AN
AMERICAN
sp
ASSAULT
ON
CUBA
sp
THEY
sp
WERE
A
DETERRENT
sp
WEAPON
IN
sp
EXACTLY
THE
sp
SAME
sp
WAY
AS
sp
THE
sp
DEFENSIVE
DETERRENT
WEAPONS
sp
ER
WERE
D
WERE
sp
DEFENSIVE
sp
ER
FOR
ER
THE
UNITED
sp
STATES
AND
sp
FOR
sp
THE
sp
SOVIET
UNION
AND
sp
THE
CONTEXT
IN
sp
WHICH
sp
THIS
sp
WAS
ER
ARGUED
ER
WAS
ER
THE
sp
BAY
OF
sp
PIGS
sp
INVASION
OF
sp
CUBA
A
C
sp
I
A
sp
AMERICAN
sp
SUPPORTED
sp
INVASION
sp
ER
sp
WHICH
ER
sp
FAILED
sp
VERY
BADLY
sp
BUT
WHICH
CERTAINLY
INDICATED
THE
AMERICAN
DESIRE
TO
sp
GET
sp
RID
OF
sp
CASTRO
sp
AND
ER
KHRUSHCHEV
WAS
ASSERTING
sp
IN
EFFECT
THAT
HE
HAD
sp
AS
MUCH
RIGHT
TO
sp
DEFEND
sp
AN
ALLY
AS
THE
UNITED
STATES
sp
HAD
ER
sp
TO
DEFEND
ERM
ITS
sp
ALLIES
AND
IN
THE
SAME
SORT
OF
sp
WAY
sp
NOW
KENNEDY
sp
HAD
A
DILEMMA
sp
ALTHOUGH
CUBA
WAS
sp
IN
sp
THE
sp
CARIBBEAN
AND
sp
ALTHOUGH
THE
sp
UNITED
STATES
HAD
THE
BIGGEST
NAVY
sp
IN
sp
THE
sp
WORLD
AND
sp
THE
BIGGEST
sp
AIRFORCE
AND
WAS
EASILY
sp
ABLE
sp
TO
sp
EXTERMINATE
CUBA
sp
IF
IT
sp
WA
IF
IT
sp
WISHED
sp
TO
IT
sp
WAS
VULNERABLE
sp
HOWEVER
sp
IN
OTHER
AREAS
sp
IN
sp
PARTICULAR
IT
sp
WAS
sp
VULNERABLE
IN
BERLIN
sp
AND
sp
IT
WAS
VULNERABLE
IN
INDO
CHINA
IN
sp
NINETEEN
sp
SIXTY
sp
ONE
sp
PRIOR
sp
TO
THE
CRISIS
sp
THE
sp
AMERICANS
HAD
sp
TO
sp
FACE
sp
THE
sp
RATHER
HUMILIATING
sp
SETTLEMENT
sp
IN
sp
LAOS
BY
WHICH
sp
THEY
sp
ACCEPTED
A
sp
COMMUNIST
sp
ERM
sp
ER
sp
GOVERNMENT
OR
AT
sp
LEAST
A
sp
GOVERNMENT
sp
WHICH
sp
HAD
COMMUNIST
MEMBERS
ERM
sp
KENNEDY
sp
WANTED
TO
INTERVENE
IN
LAOS
BUT
AGAIN
WAS
sp
RESTRAINED
BY
HIS
BRITISH
sp
ALLY
MACMILLAN
WOULDN'T
sp
IN
FACT
ACCEPT
ER
sp
THAT
WE
SHOULD
GET
INVOLVED
sp
IN
A
GROUND
sp
WAR
IN
INDO
CHINA
ER
IN
THE
sp
CASE
sp
OF
sp
BERLIN
sp
THE
sp
ER
SITUATION
THERE
sp
WAS
sp
ER
THAT
sp
RUSSIA
ER
OF
sp
COURSE
THE
SOVIET
UNION
COULD
INTERVENE
sp
IN
sp
BERLIN
MORE
OR
LESS
sp
AT
sp
WILL
sp
GIVEN
sp
THAT
IT
WAS
sp
A
SMALL
ISLAND
IN
sp
EAST
GERMANY
AND
WAS
sp
ALWAYS
A
VULNERABLE
ALWAYS
sp
ALWAYS
IN
A
sp
POSITION
OF
BEING
sp
A
sp
HOSTAGE
sp
SO
sp
KENNEDY
sp
COULDN'T
ACT
PRECIPITANTLY
HE
sp
COULDN'T
SIMPLY
DO
WHAT
HE
WANTED
TO
sp
DO
WHICH
WAS
TO
sp
GET
RID
sp
OF
CASTRO
BECAUSE
sp
IF
sp
HE'D
sp
DONE
sp
THAT
THEN
HIS
POLICY
sp
OBJECTIVES
sp
IN
OTHER
sp
PARTS
OF
THE
WORLD
sp
WOULD
sp
BE
IN
sp
JEOPARDY
sp
HE
sp
COULDN'T
sp
THREATEN
sp
THE
sp
SOVIET
sp
UNION
sp
DIRECTLY
sp
BECAUSE
sp
THE
SOVIET
sp
UNION
sp
WAS
A
NUCLEAR
sp
POWER
AND
COULDN'T
BE
sp
THREATENED
sp
ER
sp
SO
sp
THE
sp
COURSE
OF
ACTION
sp
HE
TOOK
sp
WAS
sp
INTENDED
TO
BE
MODERATE
AND
TO
SECURE
sp
THE
sp
OBJECTIVE
SOLELY
OF
sp
REMOVING
THE
MISSILES
FROM
sp
CUBA
NOT
OF
sp
DOING
sp
ANYTHING
ABOUT
sp
THE
CUBAN
sp
GOVERNMENT
OR
THE
REGIME
OR
ANYTHING
OF
sp
THAT
sp
SORT
AND
sp
SO
sp
THEY
CAME
TO
sp
A
sp
NEGOTIATED
sp
SETTLEMENT
sp
BY
sp
WHICH
sp
THE
SOVIETS
sp
AGREED
TO
sp
WITHDRAW
THE
MISSILES
sp
AND
THE
UNITED
sp
STATES
sp
PROMISED
sp
THAT
THEY
sp
WOULD
NOT
INTERFERE
sp
WITH
sp
CASTRO
sp
AGAIN
sp
ALTHOUGH
sp
FROM
sp
THAT
sp
DAY
sp
TO
THIS
sp
THEY
HAVE
sp
MAINTAINED
OF
sp
COURSE
sp
THEIR
ECONOMIC
EMBARGO
sp
ER
AND
sp
HERE
YOU
sp
HAVE
sp
A
sp
CASE
OF
sp
DIPLOMACY
SUCCEEDING
sp
ER
sp
AND
THE
sp
SPECTRE
sp
OF
sp
WAR
AND
POSSIBLY
NUCLEAR
WAR
ERM
FADING
sp
OUT
sp
LIMITS
sp
WERE
sp
SET
sp
IN
SHORT
sp
BY
sp
BOTH
SIDES
sp
ON
sp
WHAT
sp
THEY
sp
SOUGHT
sp
TO
DO
AND
sp
HOW
sp
THEY
SOUGHT
TO
DO
IT
AND
THESE
LIMITS
sp
ERM
WEREN'T
sp
SELF
EVIDENT
AT
sp
THE
sp
TIME
I
CAN
TELL
YOU
BECAUSE
THE
AMERICAN
MILITARY
sp
THE
CHIEFS
sp
OF
sp
STAFF
sp
ON
sp
THE
EXECUTIVE
sp
COMMITTEE
THAT
DISCUSSED
sp
THIS
AN
sp
AND
sp
TOOK
sp
THE
DECISIONS
sp
WERE
sp
ALL
IN
FAVOUR
OF
MAKING
S
sp
AIR
STRIKES
sp
ON
THESE
BASES
AND
POSSIBLY
sp
ER
AN
ER
AN
sp
ARMED
INTERVENTION
AND
SO
sp
THE
MILITARY
sp
ADVICE
HERE
ER
sp
WAS
ER
WAS
RATHER
sp
SIMILAR
sp
TO
sp
THAT
sp
OF
MCARTHUR
'S
sp
THAT
IS
sp
TURN
sp
THE
THE
sp
CRISIS
INTO
ER
A
DIFFERENT
sp
KIND
sp
OF
CRISIS
TURN
IT
sp
IN
sp
FACT
INTO
A
WAR
NOW
sp
THIRDLY
sp
THE
sp
VIETNAM
WAR
NOW
THIS
sp
WAS
PERHAPS
sp
THE
sp
MOST
HARROWING
sp
WAR
THE
AMERICANS
sp
EVER
sp
GOT
THEMSELVES
INVOLVED
IN
AND
HAS
sp
HAD
DEEP
sp
AND
sp
PERMANENT
sp
EFFECTS
sp
UPON
sp
AMERICAN
sp
POLICY
sp
MAKING
sp
TO
THIS
sp
VERY
DAY
NOW
sp
WHAT
WERE
sp
THE
sp
LIMITS
sp
SO
FAR
AS
THE
VIETNAM
sp
WAR
WAS
CONCERNED
WELL
INITIALLY
THE
UNITED
STATES
sp
GENUINELY
BELIEVED
sp
THAT
sp
WITH
A
sp
SMALL
sp
FORCE
sp
PERHAPS
sp
ABOUT
sp
A
HUNDRED
sp
THOUSAND
sp
MAYBE
TWO
HUNDRED
THOUSAND
TROOPS
sp
BUT
sp
PRINCIPALLY
USING
AIR
POWER
THAT
THEY
sp
COULD
sp
PREVENT
sp
THE
sp
NORTH
VIETNAMESE
sp
FROM
HELPING
THE
VIETCONG
sp
IN
sp
THE
sp
SOUTH
AND
sp
THUS
sp
CONTINUING
THE
sp
CIVIL
WAR
NOW
ONE
CAN
MAKE
JUDGMENTS
sp
ABOUT
MEANS
AND
INDEED
AS
I
WAS
SAYING
IN
MY
LAST
LECTURE
sp
THE
ACTUAL
sp
CAPABILITY
OF
THE
sp
WEAPONS
sp
YOU
sp
HAVE
sp
CAN
sp
ONLY
REALLY
sp
BE
FOUND
OUT
WHEN
sp
YOU
USE
sp
THEM
sp
AND
THEN
sp
YOU
sp
CAN
SEE
sp
VERY
sp
OFTEN
sp
THAT
sp
THEY
ARE
sp
IN
FACT
INEFFECTIVE
NOW
WA
THE
sp
THE
sp
ERM
WAR
BEGAN
WITH
sp
OPERATION
ROLLING
sp
THUNDER
AND
THIS
sp
WAS
ERM
ER
PRESIDENT
sp
JOHNSON'S
PLAN
sp
ER
TO
POUND
sp
MAJOR
sp
TARGETS
sp
IN
sp
NORTH
sp
VIETNAM
BY
sp
AERIAL
sp
BOMBARDMENT
sp
AND
MAKE
sp
MAKE
sp
THE
sp
COST
OF
sp
THEIR
sp
INTERVENTION
sp
IN
sp
THE
sp
SOUTH
VERY
sp
HIGH
SO
sp
HIGH
sp
THAT
THEY
WOULD
CUT
OFF
THE
UMBILICAL
sp
CORD
AND
STARVE
sp
THE
sp
THE
VIETCONG
sp
INTO
sp
SUBMISSION
sp
THROUGH
GROUND
OPERATIONS
IN
THE
SOUTH
sp
THAT
WAS
THE
BASIC
PLAN
sp
HE
STARTED
sp
OFF
sp
AS
DID
sp
TRUMAN
IN
sp
THE
UNITED
NATIONS
BY
TRYING
TO
sp
GET
sp
THE
SECURITY
sp
COUNCIL
TO
ADOPT
A
sp
RESOLUTION
sp
ER
sp
CALLING
sp
ER
THE
NORTH
VIETNAMESE
AGGRESSORS
AND
sp
AUTHORIZING
sp
ER
AN
AMERICAN
sp
I
E
sp
U
N
INTERVENTION
THIS
FAILED
IT
FAILED
sp
BECAUSE
sp
THE
FRENCH
sp
AND
sp
THE
sp
BRITISH
sp
WERE
UNHAPPY
sp
ABOUT
SUPPORTING
SUCH
A
MOVE
AND
INDEED
sp
THE
sp
UNITED
sp
NATIONS
LOOKED
sp
VERY
LIKELY
ER
sp
ER
TO
sp
BE
sp
MORE
ERM
WILLING
TO
sp
CONDEMN
THE
sp
UNITED
STATES
sp
THAN
IT
WAS
sp
TO
sp
CONDEMN
sp
NORTH
VIETNAM
sp
BUT
THE
VIEW
sp
OF
sp
MOST
COUNTRIES
sp
IN
sp
THE
sp
WORLD
sp
AT
THAT
TIME
sp
WAS
sp
THAT
sp
NORTH
sp
VIET
sp
THAT
sp
NORTH
sp
AND
sp
SOUTH
sp
VIETNAM
WERE
sp
PART
sp
OF
sp
THE
sp
SAME
sp
COUNTRY
sp
THAT
sp
THE
sp
GENEVA
ACCORDS
IN
NINETEEN
FIFTY
sp
FOUR
WHICH
sp
CALLED
FOR
UNIFICATION
SHOULD
BE
UPHELD
sp
AND
sp
THAT
sp
THE
UNITED
sp
STATES
WAS
INTERFERING
sp
IN
IN
A
sp
SOUTH
EAST
sp
ASIAN
sp
COUNTRY
sp
FOR
NO
sp
GOOD
sp
REASON
SO
sp
IT
IS
A
sp
HOSTILE
ATMOSPHERE
AND
sp
SO
HOSTILE
WAS
sp
IT
sp
IN
sp
THE
sp
UNITED
sp
NATIONS
sp
THAT
sp
THE
sp
AMERICANS
DECIDED
TO
CRIPPLE
IT
AND
sp
WHAT
sp
THEY
DID
WAS
TO
INVOKE
ERM
AN
ARTICLE
sp
WHICH
sp
CALLED
FOR
sp
THE
REMOVAL
OF
VOTES
FROM
THOSE
STATES
WHO
sp
WERE
IN
sp
WHO
sp
WERE
sp
IN
ARREARS
IN
THE
PAYMENT
OF
sp
THEIR
sp
DUES
OF
sp
THEIR
THEIR
FUNDS
sp
AND
THERE
WERE
sp
SEVERAL
COUNTRIES
IN
THAT
CATEGORY
TWO
sp
OF
THEM
THE
sp
SOVIET
sp
UNION
AND
FRANCE
sp
AND
THE
REASON
sp
WHY
THEY
HAD
NOT
sp
PAL
PAID
THEIR
DUES
WAS
sp
BECAUSE
sp
THEY
sp
OBJECTED
TO
sp
THE
USE
OF
THE
THESE
FUNDS
sp
FOR
PEACEKEEPING
FORCES
sp
WHICH
sp
HAD
NOT
BEEN
AUTHORIZED
sp
BY
sp
THE
SECURITY
sp
COUNCIL
IN
THEIR
ARGUMENT
THE
sp
SECURITY
COUNCIL
sp
WAS
THE
sp
THE
SUPREME
sp
AUTHORITY
AND
sp
THE
sp
GENERAL
ASSEMBLY
HAD
IN
FACT
sp
NOT
THE
RIGHT
TO
AUTHORIZE
ER
PEACEKEEPING
sp
ACTIVITIES
sp
AND
INDEED
IF
YOU
READ
THE
CHARTER
THIS
IS
THE
sp
CASE
sp
ALTHOUGH
LEGAL
ADVICE
sp
IS
CONFLICTING
sp
ON
THAT
sp
POINT
AS
sp
IT
sp
USUALLY
sp
IS
sp
ERM
sp
WELL
sp
THE
sp
SOLUTION
TO
sp
THAT
WAS
TO
HOLD
THE
MEETINGS
OF
sp
THE
GENERAL
ASSEMBLY
sp
WHERE
THE
sp
HOSTILE
sp
AMERICAN
MAJORITY
sp
WAS
sp
BUT
sp
NOT
TO
sp
PERMIT
A
sp
VOTE
sp
TO
BE
TAKEN
sp
ON
sp
ANY
RESOLUTION
AND
THIS
MEANT
sp
THAT
sp
PRESIDENT
sp
JOHNSON
sp
COULD
sp
PURSUE
HIS
HIS
THEN
SECRET
PLAN
OF
sp
BOMBING
sp
THE
sp
NORTH
sp
WITHOUT
ANY
sp
HOSTILE
sp
UNITED
NATIONS
RESOLUTION
BEING
sp
PASSED
sp
AGAINST
IT
sp
TWO
YEARS
LATER
THE
AMERICANS
QUIETLY
DROPPED
sp
THE
sp
WHOLE
ISSUE
AND
sp
THE
sp
THE
UN
sp
RETURNED
TO
NORMAL
sp
BUT
BY
THAT
sp
TIME
OF
COURSE
THE
sp
SITUATION
sp
HAD
BECOME
sp
WHAT
IT
WAS
ER
ER
A
WAR
sp
WELL
LIMITS
sp
THEN
SO
AIR
AIR
AIR
sp
BOMBARDMENT
AND
THE
sp
USE
sp
OF
SOME
GROUND
FORCES
BUT
PRINCIPALLY
sp
TO
TO
GET
ER
THE
SOUTH
VIETNAMESE
sp
ARMY
ER
TO
CONTEST
ER
sp
THE
VIETCONG
sp
ON
THE
GROUND
sp
WELL
THAT
sp
FAILED
sp
AS
sp
YOU
WOULD
sp
IMAGINE
sp
IT
sp
TO
sp
FAIL
sp
IF
YOU
TAKE
sp
THE
sp
CIVIL
WAR
IN
VIETNAM
AS
BEING
IN
EFFECT
sp
A
A
sp
WAR
sp
OF
NATIONAL
LIBERATION
AS
THE
SOVIETS
sp
CALLED
IT
BECAUSE
sp
WHAT
THE
NORTH
sp
VIETNAMESE
WANTED
WAS
IN
FACT
NATIONAL
UNITY
THEY
sp
WERE
sp
FIGHTING
FOR
AN
OBJECTIVE
WHICH
sp
WAS
sp
FAR
MORE
sp
IMPORTANT
sp
THAN
sp
LOCAL
sp
ARRANGEMENTS
OR
LOCAL
sp
AGREEMENTS
ER
sp
WITH
sp
ER
sp
FOREIGN
sp
IMPERIAL
POWERS
ABOUT
WHO
GOVERNED
WHAT
ER
IN
IN
sp
THEIR
OWN
COUNTRY
AND
SO
THEY
WERE
PREPARED
TO
sp
GO
ON
TAKING
sp
THE
PUNISHMENT
TAKING
sp
THE
COST
sp
BECAUSE
sp
THEIR
sp
OBJECTIVES
sp
WERE
HA
HAD
sp
A
sp
DIFFERENT
sp
SCALE
sp
OF
VALUE
sp
TO
sp
THE
sp
OBJECTIVES
sp
SOUGHT
sp
BY
sp
THE
sp
UNITED
sp
STATES
TWO
OR
sp
THREE
YEARS
LATER
sp
WITH
sp
HALF
sp
A
MILLION
TROOPS
THEY
ARE
sp
STILL
NO
sp
FURTHER
sp
FORWARD
IN
THEIR
sp
STRUGGLE
IN
VIETNAM
sp
AND
THE
COST
THIS
sp
TIME
WAS
TO
sp
THE
UNITED
STATES
POLITICAL
SYSTEM
BECAUSE
sp
THE
EFFECT
sp
UPON
sp
DOMESTIC
POLITICS
sp
WAS
sp
FAIRLY
SEVERE
sp
AFTER
sp
THE
sp
NORTH
VIETNAMESE
sp
REVEALED
THAT
THEY
WERE
ABLE
TO
SUSTAIN
sp
ERM
A
sp
W
ER
THEIR
WAR
IN
ER
ERM
THE
SOUTH
sp
IT
SEEMED
REGARDLESS
OF
WHAT
sp
WHAT
sp
THE
UNITED
sp
STATES
COULD
DO
sp
TO
THEM
sp
ER
AFTER
sp
THEY'D
REVEALED
sp
THIS
IN
THE
TET
sp
OFFENSIVE
OF
NINETEEN
SIXTY
EIGHT
sp
THEN
sp
PRESIDENT
sp
JOHNSON
sp
ANNOUNCED
sp
HE
WOULD
sp
NOT
sp
BE
sp
STANDING
sp
FOR
sp
RE
ELECTION
sp
AND
sp
THAT
sp
WAS
A
SIGNIFICANT
sp
ADMISSION
OF
POLITICAL
DEFEAT
sp
AND
IF
YOU
REMEMBER
sp
WELL
YOU
PROBABLY
sp
WON'T
REMEMBER
sp
BUT
sp
YOU
sp
CERTAINLY
sp
SHOULD'VE
READ
ABOUT
IT
PRESIDENT
NIXON
sp
WAS
RETURNED
sp
WITH
A
A
sp
MAJORITY
ER
ER
sp
ON
THE
PLATFORM
sp
OF
ENDING
sp
THE
sp
VIETNAM
WAR
sp
THE
sp
CASUALTIES
I
THINK
sp
WERE
sp
SOMETHING
LIKE
sp
FIFTY
FIFTY
sp
SEVEN
THOUSAND
DEAD
sp
AND
sp
A
sp
VERY
VERY
LARGE
NUMBER
OF
PEOPLE
WOUNDED
sp
BECAUSE
OF
THE
PARTICULARLY
BEASTLY
sp
KIND
OF
sp
WAR
WITH
sp
ALL
KINDS
OF
sp
WEAPONS
sp
BEING
USED
NOW
sp
WHY
sp
WAS
THE
UNITED
sp
STATES
DEFEATED
AND
WAS
THIS
WAR
A
RATIONAL
WAR
WELL
sp
THE
OBJECTIVE
WAS
THE
MAINTENANCE
sp
OF
sp
A
FRIENDLY
REGIME
sp
ER
sp
IN
sp
A
COUNTRY
WHICH
HAD
sp
BECOME
sp
PART
OF
THE
AMERICAN
SPHERE
OF
sp
INFLUENCE
sp
NO
ONE
sp
HOWEVER
sp
AT
sp
THE
sp
TIME
QUESTIONED
sp
WHY
IT
WAS
NECESSARY
TO
DO
THAT
sp
WHAT
sp
WAS
sp
THE
sp
SIGNIFICANCE
sp
OF
sp
KEEPING
sp
SOUTH
sp
VIETNAM
sp
IN
sp
THE
sp
AMERICAN
FOLD
NO
sp
ONE
ASKED
sp
THAT
QUESTION
sp
THEY
SIMPLY
FOCUSED
sp
UPON
ER
THE
THE
sp
COMMUNIST
INSURRECTION
sp
IN
sp
T
sp
ANY
sp
MORE
QUESTIONS
sp
LADIES
sp
AND
GENTLEMEN
sp
IF
sp
NOT
THERE
ARE
sp
SOME
sp
DRINKS
AT
THE
sp
BACK
sp
AND
sp
YOU
sp
CAN
ASK
sp
US
sp
ANY
QUESTIONS
sp
INFORMALLY
THANK
YOU
sp
VERY
sp
MUCH
FOR
COMING
THANK
YOU