| PS3KA | Ag2 | m | (Lloyd, age 30, lecturer) unspecified |
| PS3KB | X | f | (Nadine, age unknown, student) unspecified |
| PS3KC | X | f | (Lyn, age unknown, student) unspecified |
| PS3KD | X | m | (No name, age unknown, student) unspecified |
| PS3KE | X | m | (No name, age unknown, student) unspecified |
| HYPPSUNK (respondent W0000) | X | u | (Unknown speaker, age unknown) other |
| HYPPSUGP (respondent W000M) | X | u | (Group of unknown speakers, age unknown) other |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[1] Testing, testing, testing. [2] ... Alright okay. |
| Nadine (PS3KB) |
[3] What did, what did anybody do? [4] Did you do the migration? |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[5] No |
| Nadine (PS3KB) | [...] |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[6] I think the mi yes, no one did the migration one apart from the Dean, he did a famine, er essay. [7] Well I think what we'll have a look at is this er,mi migration essay. [8] Erm, what I'll also do, we'll only sort of talk for about twenty five minutes, about the essay, and then we'll look at sh writing short answers er, for the exam, |
| Nadine (PS3KB) |
[9] Erm, sorry, when are we having a tutorial next term? |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[10] Erm, I don't think we will be. |
| Nadine (PS3KB) |
[11] We won't. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[12] I think this is our last tutorial for this semester |
| Nadine (PS3KB) |
[13] Right. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[14] for development or integrational trade. [15] You may well have an ex erm, |
| Nadine (PS3KB) |
[16] One with another one. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[17] a tutorial with you know, somebody else for health or banking or you know, whatever. |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[18] Yes, cos if you think about it, we've had two banking, we've had two everything. |
| Nadine (PS3KB) |
[19] Two, we haven't had two banking have we? |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[20] We've got two of everything or we've got two of everything to come. |
| Nadine (PS3KB) |
[21] We've got two management. [22] So that means that, okay, supposing we have a tutorial, does that mean we haven't got anything next term until the exams start? |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[23] Mhm. |
| Unknown speaker (HYPPSUNK) | [whispering] [...] [] |
| Unknown speaker (HYPPSUNK) | [laugh] |
| (PS3KD) |
[24] Some lecturers, perhaps have some lectures, you know for |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[25] You may, you may have lec the lectures are supposed to finish at the end of this term, but if, you know, a lecturer has been ill or hasn't managed to get through the stuff erm, you may have some lectures next term, but er |
| (PS3KD) |
[26] They said that at, someone from third year last year er, she said that Professor is having an extra lecture you know, telling what's on the exam [laugh] those things. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[27] [laughing] Well, if he tells you, he's er, he's in the min minority [] . [28] Er, he may, he may be, you'll have to, to ask him, but generally speaking he does have er |
| (PS3KD) | [...] |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[29] Yes, yes. |
| Nadine (PS3KB) |
[30] You'd think he'd er, target to finish early this term. |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[31] Yes, well, we'll just ask you to lecture us |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[32] Yes, yes, that's right, I mean he should, you know, the lecturer should say this is the last lecture of term. [33] The last lecture of the semester. [34] Now, what they try and do is finish at the end of this term, so you've got from now on until, mid- January to, to revise erm, but you may have |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[35] Or if you do |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[36] you may, you may, you may have the er, er, you may have some lectures, and possibly some tutorials next term, although I doubt it. [37] It just depends on how behind people are. [38] Okay. [39] Erm, so the title of er, this migration essay, is something I, what are the factors, erm, so in your opinion, no, not the right one, |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[40] I've got it here |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[41] Can somebody, can someone |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[42] what factors influence rural urb urban migration decisions in L D Cs, and how can they effect the level of unemployment? |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[43] Ah, right, okay, so what factors influence rural urban migration, er, in L D Cs and how can these affect the level of urban unemployment? [44] Okay. [45] So, what factors do influence migration in developing countries? [46] ... We took, categorize into economic and non-economic? [47] It does seem a sensible way to approach things, possibly. [48] What er, what sort of factors are important? |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[49] [...] , differences of income. |
| (PS3KE) |
[50] Differences of income. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[51] Okay, income differentials, yes, so presumably the larger the differential between urban and rural wages, the er, the more, or the greater the incentive. |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[52] Education. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[53] Why, why education, I mean |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[54] Because, erm, the greater the education, er, supposedly increases your chance of getting a job, opens up more opportunities up for you, so erm, you know, if there's only a certain number of jobs, the one with the most education is more likely to get it. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[55] Okay. |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[56] Erm, and all |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[57] Wait, wait a second, can we leave education. [58] What about you know, if, if someone is relatively well educated, and they come from an urban, urban rural area, why don't they get a job in the rural area using those qualifications? |
| Nadine (PS3KB) |
[59] Cos there isn't any. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[60] Right okay, that's the er, that's the er long and short of it, by and large, there, there isn't erm, employment, er, there are very few erm, administrative type, type jobs. |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[61] Also to add to that is that erm, we know that a great of, basically agriculture's sort of under-employed, there's a lot of under-employment in agriculture. [62] And erm, so, the, there's more opportunity to actually improve your situation by being in an urban area, erm, by migrating even internationally to improve your situation. [63] Basically people are maximizing their situations in agriculture. [64] They're born into maximum situations. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[65] Right so they're |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[66] In the majority of cases, I would say there's probably a few there. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[67] okay, so the, there, what you're saying is that the, the rural wage is a sub a subsistence wage, which is im by definition, sort the minimum wage you require to live on and er, there are possibilities of much higher incomes else elsewhere, so the, [clears throat] the subsistence wage itself may well act as quite er, strong sort of push factor out of the rural areas, let alone erm, high wages in er, er, the urban areas. |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[68] Cost of migration. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[69] Okay, what's, what do you mean by that? |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[70] Well, erm, there is a cost involved in moving from, physically moving from one to the other, and also when you have to weigh up er, costs of moving your family or the risks involved and things like that, so that's all involved in that. [71] Erm, and for some people, well for the whole of the rural economy, it's harder to, or they're in a, a lesser income situation, and it's also availability of credit, or access to funds is much, you know, people have less savings, and so forth, because they don't save. [72] They employ it, and put it back into the land, if they do make anything. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[73] Okay. |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[74] So, so, you know, for a lot of, I wouldn't say a lot, but there is a, a group in the population that are basically concerned with just surviving in agriculture, and wouldn't even consider, even if they are, say have got a high IQ or something, they just physically can't migrate because of the cost. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[75] Okay, yes, that's fine. [76] True. [77] Did, anything else? [78] ... Do they automatically get jobs if they move? |
| Nadine (PS3KB) |
[79] Nope. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[80] Okay, so the probability of getting a job is going to be quite important. |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[81] Erm, the amount of information available determines, on the probability of thereby you can reverse it round, and say the amount of unemployment. [82] So like we know, we can, we see on television, the rates of unemployment say in France and Germany, and so forth, so that influences our decision to up say to Liverpool or Edinburgh somewhere, and influences our decision to migrate. [83] Now, it's a bit different, because normally we apply to a job in Glasgow, we might get it or we might not, but, you look at, we've got more of, of information, but, in less developed countries, that information is, even if it were collected, sometimes it's not even collected, erm, it's not widely available, so people's perceptions or hearsay from people who've gone before, is the information, and that's often erm, wrong. [84] And even if it was close to being right, say the unemployment is say, twenty percent, it doesn't account for like under-employment in the, in the informal sector and things like that |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[85] So is, is lack of information, or lack of relevant information, is that why we get this apparent paradox of erm, people migrating from rural to urban areas, despite there is in actual fact, twenty or thirty percent unemployment in the urban areas, and the migrants have very little chance of ever getting a job? [86] Is that ... is that a reason? |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[87] Yes. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[88] Yes, does that carry much weight do you think? |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[89] Don't know. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[90] Well there's one school of thought, says yes, that is why we get this apparent paradox of people migrating, right, when we actually have very high unemployment. [91] You know, what are you migrating for? [92] Well it's to get a job, to improve your living standards. [93] Alright, and perhaps the reason why people are migrating when there is very high unemployment is because they don't realize that there is such high unemployment. [94] [clears throat] But that sort of view has been, has been challenged in more, in more recent years with empirical studies saying erm, er, sort of rural labour forces is quite likely to migrate, or some parts of the rural labour force are quite likely to migrate right, and it is rational to migrate, even in the presence of very high unemployment. |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[95] But, the, what are they measuring? [96] How is unemployment measured, they're measuring it in the formal sector, and you can actually live by being employed in the informal sector, which is often not recorded. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[97] Okay. |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[98] So, so, I believe it's alright to say well people will migrate in the presence of, it's rational for a person to migrate in the presence of, of high unemployment if high unemployment only refers to the formal sector, but it's not rational if it implies that it refers to informal and formal. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[99] Well could it be, well, it still could be? |
| Nadine (PS3KB) |
[100] Can I just ask a question? |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[101] Mm. |
| Nadine (PS3KB) |
[102] Right, you said that the reason is, there's lack of information so, that's why people migrate, because they don't realize they're not going to get a job. [103] And the counter-arguments to this is that there isn't lack of information, people know they're not going to get a job, but they're still better off to move, so that's a rubbish theory. [104] Is that what you're saying? |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[105] Mm, that's right, I mean that's what, sort of people like Harrison sort of were saying, is that, it, it's still rational to move, even in the presence of very high, very high unemployment. [106] Okay. |
| Unknown speaker (HYPPSUNK) |
[107] Why? |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[108] Why, why is that the case, well, tell me, why might people, why might you move to a, if you were a rural labourer, why might you move to erm, to an urban area where you knew there were some jobs? |
| Nadine (PS3KB) |
[109] Because they're most likely to get social support if anybody's going get anything. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[110] How, how do you mean Nadine? |
| Nadine (PS3KB) |
[111] Well if, if they start introducing measures to help the people out who are, if you're in an urban area like in a slum, they're more likely to help those people first. [112] Be it |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[113] I don't, I don't know |
| Unknown speaker (HYPPSUNK) | [laugh] |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[114] be it, the expected |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[115] interesting theory. |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[116] is about the expected wage, and he says that people erm, base their decision, a rational mind would base his decision on erm, probability of getting a job times the erm, urban wage rate, equals the expected rate, wage rate, and he's saying that, because urban wage rates are so much higher, erm, that unemployment rate can also be quite high, and the expected gains can still be positive. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[117] Mm, that's right, because what's, what are Harrison's doing? [118] They're summing expected income over all future periods |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[119] They're, yes, they're, they're making a present value of |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[120] Mm, so they're, you're doing a present value expression. [121] So although erm, current rates of unemployment are very high, you may be prepared to erm, to, to accept unemployment in the short term, you know, because a year down the line, you may well be able to get employment. [122] You know, if, particularly so, if you're only on a subsistence wage in the first place. [123] You know, if not, you know, if you're very, very poor in a, in a rural area, you may think, well look, there's, there's this chance, no matter how, how slim of me getting a, sort of proper job in the urban area, thus you may well take that chance. [124] You could, you may, what you may feel confident in er, your employment prospects, you know, if you're the, the most able in the village or, you know, in your little sort of, social environment |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[125] Tribe. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[126] [laughing] Tribe, or whatever [] . [127] You know, you may, you may be the best, and therefore think, think you have a, or have a high opinion of yourself, and therefore try your luck, you know, if somebody must be getting those jobs it could be me. [128] Erm, rather than, so people may, may make rational decisions and this is what Harrison were taking about is that, erm, it still may be rational to move, even though there's very high unemployment, alright, simply because people [clears throat] may accept a period of erm, of unemployment if it means that they, in the long run, obtain a, a relatively high paid job. [129] Erm, we can do a little design round here. [130] Time on this axis, and wages rates, rural wage or against urban wages. [131] Now this is saying that ... that's the wage rate in er ... in a rural centre. [132] So if we just add up over sort of the time horizon of this person, this person's life, right, his expected wage in agriculture, right, it's going to be this, this, this area here. [133] Alright, [clears throat] if erm, if we now ... so this is going to be his sort of, his opportunity cost right, his wage rate in the rural sense is going to, to opportunity cost, and the sum of the opportunity cost over time right, is going to be the present, you know if we discount that by some er, if we turn it into a present, a present value, right, the present value of that sum there, right, will determine life times income in agriculture. [134] Right if we ... oh, ah right, let's not discount it, right, now let's just explain this again. [135] This is the wage rate in agriculture, right, now if we discount, sorry I've made a cock-up of this, that's erm, that's not discounted, right, if we discounted, it's going to look |
| Nadine (PS3KB) |
[136] Why just discount it and then? |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[137] Well it's just that, you know, a pound, or a hundred pounds today, is not the same as a hundred pounds in a year's time, or two, two years' time. [138] ... Right. |
| Unknown speaker (HYPPSUNK) |
[139] So that would be opportunity cost? |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[140] That's right, yes, that's right, so, in actual fact, this area here, right, is going to be the discounted sum of all future rural incomes. [141] Alright, now if we look at the, the rural instead of the urban wage rate, right, up here ... alright, now let's just say that it takes that amount of time before this individual gets a job in the urban area, alright, now if we discount ... alright the erm, the rural, the urban wages right, that's ... all this |
| Nadine (PS3KB) |
[142] Why have you just discounted it to there? |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[143] Sorry? |
| Nadine (PS3KB) |
[144] Why have you discounted it to W R? |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[145] Well it's, well, er, there's no need why that should be the case, it could be, you know, it could look something like that. [146] But, up in the, there the migrant's decision making process will be, is this area here ... right, is that area there, greater ... than that area there. [147] Alright, so this is the discounted sum in er, in non-agriculture, in the urban area, and this is the value, the discounted sum in agriculture. [148] Now, clearly on the, on the way I've drawn this diagram it is. [149] Right, but that's going to depend on right, not only the wage differential, now if the wage differential is very large it's likely that this discounted sum is going to, you know, be larger than that. [150] But it also depends on the time it takes to get the job. [151] I mean if we got a job somewhere out here ... then it clearly wouldn't be. [152] ... So it's this, it's the time taken to get this erm, er, to get the job's going to be important. [153] Now if we think of W U as being er, the expected value of the urban wage, and that equals the probability of getting a job, multiplied by the actual urban wages, alright then this probability of getting a job is going to be important as well. [154] And that's it then, scruffy diagram, but what more have we got? [155] An urban wage, a rural wage, right, we discount those wages over time, right and that area there, shading the area in the blue sort of box, then this it's erm, it's going to be rational for this er, migrant, this person to become a migrant. [156] Even though, I mean this doesn't say anything about unemployment levels, levels of unemployment. [157] Unem the level of unemployment is subsumed between, well, within the time it takes to get a job, and also the probability of, of getting a job. [158] Alright. [159] So this sort of, even that's just what [...] the Harrison model erm, tells us, right, so that's, unemployment rates are, are virtually erm, unimportant in the migrant's decision. [160] Unemployment rates now, it's because they may well be, if they're acting rationally, discount over a very large, long period of time. [161] Okay ... just er, just to ask, is this erm, migration, it, does it cause a problem? [162] I mean I thought that migration was the er, would be the cure of all ills, in that, you know, we've got wage differentials here in this, in this hypothetical economy. [163] Surely if you migrate that increases the supply of labour, it reduces the supply of labour in the rural sector, it increases the supply of labour in er, the urban sector, unless wage, wage rates should equalize? |
| Unknown speaker (HYPPSUNK) |
[164] No. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[165] What, what, why don't, why doesn't, why don't wage rates equalize? |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[166] Because erm, the urban sector is normally considered to be capital intensive a sector, and the rural area in L D Cs are considered more labour intensive, and so erm, obviously when you get an influx of labour, and changes to the capital to labour ratio |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[167] Mhm |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[168] erm, and you would see er, a shift in capital to, to agriculture as the return on capital in urban falls, |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[169] mhm |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[170] and this would, you would think, because there's a shift back of capital to agriculture you'd get a rise in agricultural wage rates because that changes the capital to labour ratio again [laugh] and so this would counteract the movement. [171] However, there is a problem, capital is not perfectly mobile, like you can apply a new machine into, well maybe you could cos that's [...] . [172] Whatever, you can't apply the urban type of capital back onto the land, so it's okay to say this would work if capital was completely and perfectly mobile, but it isn't so, you don't get that and you don't get balanced growth of that. [173] Because er, everything shifts in the wrong direction. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[174] That's right, I mean, in order to eq equalize wages between sector, labour and also capital has to be perfectly mobile. [175] Now, if it's not, we know that labour isn't, isn't perfectly mobile, it appeared, migration would seem to suggest it's, it's pretty mobile geographically, but it may not be particularly mobile occupationally. [176] So that these people go to the urban areas to get the jobs, they're not trained erm, for these jobs right [clears throat] and as a result, these wages rates still, may still be maintained despite the fact there are lots of people who are quite happy to take wages erm, in, take up jobs in the urban sectors, it's the fact that sort of, employers don't want them, because they don't have the requisite skills. [177] Also, where, what are the erm, what're the highest paid jobs in the urban sector? [178] They are essentially in developing countries. [179] They are essentially government jobs. [180] Right. [181] Now, er, without wishing to generalize too much, bribery, corruption, you know, it's not what you know, it's who you know, are very important factors in er, in employment in developing countries. [182] And as a result they are |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[183] It's much nicer to say patronage, you promise to say patronage. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[184] Ah, patronage, okay, that's er, a nice euphemism to see the |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[185] Then you don't like slander people. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[186] [laugh] That's right, in that erm, you're, the probability of you getting a well paid job is greatly enhanced, if not guaranteed if you know er, the people who are employing you. [187] And this sort of thing goes, is, is rife in developing countries. [188] I mean the old boy network is pretty bad in this country, but er, it's similar sorts of things go on in developing countries, and because there's much less of an industrial sector there, the government sector itself, erm, plays a very important role in, in employment. [189] Now, was it you Lyn who had some statistics some saying er, what proportion |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[190] Fine ... I've got, [laughing] I've got to use stat statistics to [...] [] |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[191] Well it works, erm, there were some |
| Nadine (PS3KB) |
[192] Yes. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[193] I can't remember if it was you or somebody else, had er, some data as to how many of the er, jobs in urban areas where the government |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[194] I put erm, studies by Helen and Tate, nineteen eighty three, found public sector employment averaged forty four percent of non-agricultural employment in twenty L D Cs and in extreme cases were Tanzania and Zambia, were as high as seventy eight and eighty one percent respectively. [195] And I think he quote those, or they didn't quote them in much, as much detail as I did in the lectures. [196] I'd got these figures down, but I hadn't really got anything against them, he just quickly went through the percentages so yes. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[197] Okay, so |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[198] And developed countries averaged twenty four percent, so it's twice as much as developed countries. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[199] Right, so given sort of erm, public and semi-public institutions, right, represent a large proportion of the non- agricultural erm, employment opportunities, and as a result, alright, the rates of pay in the, in the civil service, essentially, are going to, going to determine erm, the urban, the urban wage rate. [200] Now if those, erm, wages in the civil service are set, not through sort of market process, but sort of through institutional er, constraints, you know, it's unlikely there's going to be sort of er, union power erm, in these sorts of jobs, but nevertheless, civil servants tend to do quite well at giving themselves pay increases |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[201] [...] Conservative government. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[202] and er, and as a result, you know, institutes, the wages in government bodies tend to be quite high, and because gov government bodies represent such a large proportion of er, non- agricultural employment they, they represent a much more sort of, a much more potent influence than they would do in a, in a developed country where the government sector is much, much smaller. [203] ... Erm ... okay ... what was the importance of implication of er, Harrison model? [204] There was one policy implication. |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[205] That, what was it, that erm ... people still move. [206] Obviously, we that right, people will still move if unemployment's high, but if you try, if the government tries and gets rid of unem urban unemployment, say people have moved because of it, so there's unemployment there to start with because of the reasons we've discussed earlier, so then the government said okay, well let's get rid of the unemployment that has occurred already, by erm, either, at the same wage rate trying to well yes, the same, they'll keep wage rates the same, but erm, increase, you know, make the public sector bigger or, or do something to create urban jobs, and basically all it will do is, encourage more migrants because they'll see the probability of getting a job will increase so the expected wage will increase so you'll get migration on top of what's already occurring. [207] And, erm, you won't solve anything. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[208] That's right, so, if you want to try and erm, minimize urban unemployment, right, or it's futile to try and minimize urban unemployment by erm, er, establishing employment er, job creation schemes in urban areas, because that will increase the probability of getting a job if you're a migrant. [209] Right, so there are these government job creation schemes, alright. [210] Now, because it's typically observed in the Harrison model shows this under certain circumstances to be the case, that, erm, a sort of erm, migration elasticity with respect to income differentials, right, is much greater than the erm, |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[211] The rate of unemployment, the level of unemployment |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[212] That's right, yes, yes, that's right, because erm, there's a gre there's a higher elasticity of migration inelasticity in respect to income differentials than there is to unemployment, any job creation schemes will lead to more migration, rather than, rather than less, so how, how best to get round the problem? [213] If job creation schemes aren't in urban areas, are the best way to get round them, isn't it, if we can show, quite simply, that job creation schemes lead to more migration, which lead to more unemployment. [214] ... The policy's self repeating, what policies might [...] ? |
| (PS3KE) |
[215] A policy of cross-training, [...] for all areas. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[216] Okay, yeah, so, what might those, what form might those policies take, what might they be? |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[217] [laughing] [...] on it [] . |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[218] Yes, population controls, that's right, that's one, I mean, one reason, one way of getting rid of the migration is to, is to, is to limit population growth. [219] Where's the population growth highest? [220] It's at its highest in rural areas, this is what's being done. [221] Erm, population control is always focused out in the rural areas, [...] the most difficult place to do it, because populations are dispersed, er, that's where population growth, right, is the highest. [222] Any other? |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[223] Making incentives to actually raise the wage rates in the, in the rural areas so, sort of to, to increase production or, and through, through farming. [224] To improve their situation, |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[225] Right, yeah |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[226] improve their wages through farming and perhaps |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[227] That's right, |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[228] put more infrastructure in so that then the farmers can send their children to school rather than work on the land. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[229] yeah, that's right, what we want to try and do is to improve the erm, the returns to, to agriculture which is the main form of er, sort of income in rural areas. [230] I mean if you do things like that while improving infrastructure, erm, setting up credit, government credit facilities, er, so, so, so we can lend, we could lend money to small farms. [231] Increase in information about unem unemployment itself, that is a, that is a problem, people have this misapprehensions about the probability of getting a job |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[232] You could also erm, start to recognize the benefit of the rural sector, and one reason why they were discriminating, L D Cs tended to want to ignore that and sort of shun it, because it's not sort of a glamorous image they were trying to hope for in the urban sector, and, so, if they did help them, say give them units, like the repair men, units to work in, and they put them in really totally crappy accommodation, and up not where you need it, and not where people pass by with their motors and things, they, they'd put them somewhere up on a hill, overlooking a city, so erm, to encourage the informal sector by erm, sort of on a par with the formal sector because erm, their inter- reacting, inter-relating now, like they're providing cheap inputs for the formal industries and, and the formal industries are pro providing clientele all for the informal sector, and so it's all inter-linked and, and it's there now. [233] It's not going to disappear, cos it's quite a large part of urban areas. [234] They could do that. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[235] Yes, we want to try and improve resource allocation in the economy and one way of doing that is not necessarily subsidizing agricultural production, but remove the taxes on agricultural growth. [236] Alright, and effectively what's, what's happening is that the government sectors in erm, in developing countries are very highly subsidized. [237] Right, they're overmanned, alright, they have very high wages, alright, er, that is one of the major courses of er, causes of resource mis-allocation, it's this very large, very inefficient government sector. [238] And er, one way to, to get people to stay on the land is to introduce some sort of, what we might call market disciplines, if that wasn't such a dirty word, er, into the government, the government sector where there are clear inefficiencies. [239] ... Okay, right, erm ... it's nearly time to go, but before we do, can I just give you some ... bits and pieces, you, you may well have copies of last year's exam paper, but if you haven't, this is for development and integration of trade er, have a look at those sorts of essays you're being asked to do. [240] But also, look as those er, those short answers, now it's important that you answer the short answer questions well alright, because it's, it's a lot easier to get good marks on a short answer question, providing you do it well, than it is on a long answer question. [241] Alright, erm, but most people don't, don't ans don't answer short answer questions very well at all, and that's why they get low, low marks for them. [242] Always re bear in mind, that whenever you do a short answer question, right, you've only got fifteen minutes to do it in. [243] Right, there, there isn't a great deal that you can get in, in fifteen minutes. [244] But what, what you must have, right, is a definition of erm, the er, sort of thing that you're asked to write about. [245] I mean, factor price equalization, intra-industry measuring intra-industry trade, optimal intervention, reciprocal dumping, they're all jargon, bits of jargon effect effectively, so you must, you must have a definition. [246] Right now, although the determinals in industrial specialization within countries, alright, now although you can't really define that, you might be able to say something about industrial specialization. [247] You know it's fairly obvious what it is, but with most of these will, will require, require a definition. [248] Right, so you must put a definition, a definition in there. [249] An example of it in use, and you must have ex what I'm saying, it's very important to have empirical erm, examples in your essays, right, because they will also be required in the short answer questions as well. [250] Right, you know, what is an example of erm, reciprocal dumping? [251] Right now you may, erm, [...] don't know anything in particular, but I know that the European Community and the United, United States are always trying to out, erm, beat each other in terms of subsidies on food products, so put, put that in. [252] Reciprocal dumping, erm, you know, one very good example would be agricultural trade between European Community and erm, and America. [253] Alright, if it's a, so you, you've got to have a definition, alright, you must have a, an example of it in, in action. [254] Any form of empirical evidence is useful, alright, erm ... sometimes you know, you're asked, you know, what is the effective protection, or define, or write brief a brief essay on effective protection, right you'll, you'll want to say something there about how it's measured. [255] Now what essentially, what you're doing, is that you're writing an essay in very, very condensed form, so it's just, I mean you still, still must have the same recipe in there when you write a short answer, right, but you just have to be very, very brief, so you know,para paragraph on definition, you know, paragraph of examples, right, erm, paragraph on some sort of explanation or erm, how it's, how it's measured erm, has it been a contentious issue erm, what are the problems with this er, with this concept erm, right, you've got to get those sort of things in there, like you would in an essay, if you were asked to write an essay on reciprocal dumping you'd, you'd have all those things in there, right, but you only need to write a sentence, a sentence about them. [256] You know, nobody's expecting three or four sides, right, you've got quarter of an hour, not erm, you know, if, if you can write a side a half you, you'll be doing much better than most people, alright, so you're just thinking about a side really, depending on how big your handwriting is. [257] But you must have, you know, don't ramble on about the same thing, right, cos, for, for, for any more than a couple of sentences, cos then, you know, you c start entering into sort of diminishing marginal returns very, very quickly on these short answer questions, what you want to, do is sort of say a sentence about as much as you can rather than go into in depth discussion about erm, any particular aspect. [258] Alright, so it's a bit of er, a sort of blunderbuss type of approach that you've got, that you've got to use. [259] Get a definition in, get an application in, get empirical evidence in, get measurement problems in erm, get sort of contentious issues type of, or criticisms in erm, don't draw, don't do diagrams as they're probably, the only, the only principal difference between this and an essay, you just haven't got the time, right, so don't be tempted, unless you can do a very quick diagram that sum, sums it up. [260] Alright, I don't recommend doing diagrams cos you spend five, five ten minutes drawing the diagram and explaining you know, what the curves are on it, erm, so you don't really need to draw, draw diagrams in these short answer questions. [261] Again that's only a general principle. [262] Occasionally you might be, but erm, if I can, if you look at er, the erm, the European Community's erm, short answers, right, they've actually given you an except there, a dia diagram, right. [263] Question, question one, [...] question two, alright. [264] It's a pretty complicated diagram, I wouldn't expect you to draw that in fifteen minutes, and explain the, the |
| Nadine (PS3KB) |
[265] If they give you a diagram like that, can you just talk about the lines, you don't have to say what they are? |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[266] No, that's right, yes. |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[267] Basically, you could say like with gains or something, gains are A, B, C. |
| Nadine (PS3KB) |
[268] Yes |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[269] That's right, |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[270] I reckon that's, that's the way that |
| Nadine (PS3KB) |
[271] it will be assu it will be assumed that, yes |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[272] everything on there is known about that, just specific areas. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[273] Alright, but you know, you've got so little time, you know, fifteen minutes is very, very short period of time, so whatever you say |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[274] [laughing] Not wanting to induce panicking [] . |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[275] What I do recommend you do is er, you know, use these short answers in your, in your revision, and sort of, you know, revise on say interim district trade, and then just write a question in fifteen minutes, and you realize that you can't really write very much, and it's good discipline, because once you've made the mistake, you know, of writing, you know, two paragraphs on some aspect of it, you realize you haven't got any time to, to do anything else. [276] You won't, hopefully you won't make that mistake again, so, short, sweet, crisp answers to these erm, these short answer questions. [277] Don't bother doing diagrams, get a sentence in on everything you know, right although it's not |
| Lyn (PS3KC) | [...] |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[278] Well, that doesn't sound very sophisticated to say, these are the questions when you just write everything you know about a particular issue. |
| Nadine (PS3KB) |
[279] But they are, you do straight out what you can think up about it. |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[280] Yes, that's essentially, essentially it. |
| Nadine (PS3KB) |
[281] Apart from the essays |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[282] [laughing] [...] write anyway for thirty minutes [] |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[283] Not quite the same approach there, but I mean, it's not, not everything you know, but write something about everything you know about |
| Nadine (PS3KB) |
[284] Alright |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[285] the short answers. [286] A, a sentence on everything you can, think of that, that relates to it, but if you do, [...] do practise them, it's only just to, to talk about it, it's difficult to know what you can write in fifteen minutes. [287] Right, I'm here vir virtually throughout the vacation, erm, I'll be here until the beginning of next term, so if you are having problems of any sort, or want me to run through something with you, just er, feel free to disturb me. |
| Unknown speaker (HYPPSUNK) |
[288] Sorry, sorry |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[289] It's alright, so come along and see me, if you have any problems, it's much better you talk it over with me before the problem gets out of hand. [290] Alright, so, come and see me as soon as the problems start to emerge, and I can probably tell you that you're, you're wasting time and energy worrying about it, so |
| Lyn (PS3KC) |
[291] [...] we're going to sit and [...] |
| Lloyd (PS3KA) |
[292] so, er, come and see me before you know, if you are having any problems, just come along. [293] Okay, don't forget to have a few days break over Christmas, don't work all the time, have a jolly good time. [294] See you next year. |
| Unknown speaker (HYPPSUNK) |
[295] Yes, bye |